In All Probability

FLIP A COIN three or four times and you can bet heads will appear at least once. Congratulations, now you know basically all there is to know about the exciting world of gambling. Well, with respect to winning and/or losing at those casino games based solely on luck, that is. While some gambling games, like poker and even blackjack require certain elements of skill in order to win, others such as craps, roulette, and lotteries of course, are regarded as games based on pure luck. Naturally, there are those on both sides of the debate, or as someone once coined the expression: There are two sides to every coin.

Sherlock vs. Sheer Luck
On one side of the argument are those who believe that the outcomes of certain types of gambling games are dependent solely on sheer luck, while others maintain the opposite view, insisting that winning is totally dependent on talent. And - of course - there is always that gray area, especially when it comes to games demanding both skill and luck in order for a player to emerge victorious. Some folks even believe there is ample skill to be applied to slot machines. That's right, slot machines. Indeed, observing and determining which one-arm bandits are ripe for spewing out coinage is an art form practiced by many.

The whole concept of probability is an odd one, due mainly to the fact that no natural law exists which requires a likely incident or end result to actually happen. While a ‘probable' outcome will usually occur, you know what they say, "I wouldn't bet on it."

Whether it's a single toss of a coin or a zillion, the chances that the coin will land heads up or tails up are always 50-50. However, it is important to understand the difference between the probability of an outcome... and the actual outcome. One can only assume certain results will indeed happen. To think that the laws of probability can be relied upon to predict a future win/loss result is not only misguided, it could prove mighty costly as well.

There are No Guarantees (Sorry)
If you flip a coin 100 times heads and tails will have equal chances of landing face up, although one side will (probably) appear more often than the other. Flip a coin 1,000 times and the results will be virtually the same in terms of percentage. As in life, there are no guarantees that one side will outdo the other or that they will ever be perfectly even.

As we mentioned earlier, with every flip of a coin there exists a fifty-fifty chance of heads (or tails) coming up. The probability that heads will result two times in a row is 1 in 4, 1 in 8 for heads appearing three times in a row, and a 1 in 16 likelihood that heads will land 4 times in a row.

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